Coronavirus cases in rural America are as high as they have been since the pandemic began. The level of reported rural cases and deaths from the virus now consistently outpace the rural share of the national population.
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health crisis affecting nearly every community – including rural America. While there are still many uncertainties, the health crisis changes daily and the pandemic’s impact on rural communities continues to grow and evolve. The Housing Assistance Council (HAC) presents summary findings of COVID-19 in rural America as of early October 2020.
The first reported case of COVID-19 outside of metropolitan areas came on February 20, 2020. As of October 1, 2020, there were more than 900, 000 reported cases of COVID-19 and approximately 20, 000 associated deaths in communities outside of metropolitan areas. All but 9 counties outside of metropolitan areas now have reported COVID-19 cases, and nearly 80 percent of outside metro counties have also reported associated deaths related to the virus.
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Nationally, the number of new COVID-19 cases have begun to increase again and reported rural cases have also grown to some of their highest levels since the pandemic began. Between September 17 and October 1, rural areas reported an average of 8, 543 cases per day – an upward trend of about 25 percent in the past 14-day period. Similarly, rural reported COVID related deaths were up 17 percent over the past 14 days.
Initial impacts of COVID-19 were greatest in urban communities and these areas still have the largest share of cases and deaths. Since February 20, 2020, about 12 percent of the total reported COVID-19 cases were identified in rural communities. But the rural share of COVID-19 cases continues to rise nationally. On September 1, 2020, approximately 15 percent of new COVID-19 cases and 19 percent of deaths were reported in rural communities. On October 1, 2020, 22 percent of new cases and 23 percent of new deaths were reported outside of metropolitan areas.
Over 99 percent of counties outside of Metropolitan areas have reported COVID-19 cases, but the virus’ impacts vary widely across the nation’s rural geography. There have been several instances of extremely high per-capita infection rates in rural areas – notably on some Native American lands and communities with meat packing and correctional facilities. From September 1- October 1, the rural case and death rates increased most dramatically in the plains and upper Midwest, as well as in some Appalachian and southern communities.
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The information in this brief derives from Housing Assistance Council tabulations of data from The New York Times, based on reports from state and local health agencies, and the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2014-2018 American Community Survey.
In these analyses, the terms “rural” and Outside Metropolitan Areas are synonymous and refer to counties and counts outside of OMB designated Metropolitan Areas.Will reopening schools in America cause covid-19 cases to spike?The spread of the virus in schools will depend on the communities those schools are in
LAST SPRING, as the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe, America’s public schools were closed. Today, nearly a year later, most classrooms remain empty. According to the Centre on Reinventing Public Education, a research group, less than half of the country’s schools were offering full in-person instruction in December; nearly a third were teaching entirely online. President Joe Biden has vowed to reopen primary schools “five days a week” by his 100th day in office. But new guidelines issued by America’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) call for schools to reopen fully only in places where infection rates are relatively low: fewer than 50 new cases per 100, 000 people over seven days. According to the CDC’s latest data only 10% of counties fall below this threshold; in most of the country covid transmission rates are still “high” (see map).
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A new working paper by researchers at Michigan State University and the University of Washington suggests such limits may be sensible. To find out if in-person learning helps to spread the virus, the authors collected district-level data on how schools were teaching students in Michigan and Washington state in the autumn (in person, online or by a combination of the two) and matched them with data on new reported cases of covid-19. After controlling for relevant variables such as population density, race, political preferences and attitudes towards mask-wearing, they found that in-person schooling did accelerate the spread of the virus, but only in places where prevailing infection rates were relatively high. In Washington, in-person schooling began to contribute to community spread when the rate reached five new cases per 100, 000 people per day; in Michigan this occurred at 19 new daily cases per 100, 000 people. The spread of covid-19 in schools, they argue, has more do with the communities those schools are in than any danger inherent in classrooms themselves.
But the debate around reopening America’s schools has strayed in recent weeks far beyond the question of whether the virus is under control at the local level. Teachers’ unions are pushing for teachers and school staff to be vaccinated before reopening. Some have even called for students to be inoculated before schools are reopened. But so far just 28 states and the District of Columbia have begun offering vaccines to teachers. Rochelle Walensky, the head of the CDC, said this month that vaccination is not a prerequisite for in-person learning. Although Mr Biden has said he believes teachers should be moved up the queue to get the vaccine, he cannot force states to comply.
Even if schools do open their doors, some Americans may be reluctant to send their children back. Black parents seem especially cautious. According to a survey from EducationNext, a journal, only 56% of African-American students who had access to in-person schooling in November took part, compared with 76% of their white peers. Attitudes are also split along party lines. Support for Donald Trump in 2016 was a strong predictor of districts’ decisions to reopen schools last autumn. Republicans are also less likely than Democrats to take precautions such as wearing a mask. If the schools that do open are also the ones least likely to follow the CDC’s guidance, the risk of cases spiking will increase.
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A new working paper by researchers at Michigan State University and the University of Washington suggests such limits may be sensible. To find out if in-person learning helps to spread the virus, the authors collected district-level data on how schools were teaching students in Michigan and Washington state in the autumn (in person, online or by a combination of the two) and matched them with data on new reported cases of covid-19. After controlling for relevant variables such as population density, race, political preferences and attitudes towards mask-wearing, they found that in-person schooling did accelerate the spread of the virus, but only in places where prevailing infection rates were relatively high. In Washington, in-person schooling began to contribute to community spread when the rate reached five new cases per 100, 000 people per day; in Michigan this occurred at 19 new daily cases per 100, 000 people. The spread of covid-19 in schools, they argue, has more do with the communities those schools are in than any danger inherent in classrooms themselves.
But the debate around reopening America’s schools has strayed in recent weeks far beyond the question of whether the virus is under control at the local level. Teachers’ unions are pushing for teachers and school staff to be vaccinated before reopening. Some have even called for students to be inoculated before schools are reopened. But so far just 28 states and the District of Columbia have begun offering vaccines to teachers. Rochelle Walensky, the head of the CDC, said this month that vaccination is not a prerequisite for in-person learning. Although Mr Biden has said he believes teachers should be moved up the queue to get the vaccine, he cannot force states to comply.
Even if schools do open their doors, some Americans may be reluctant to send their children back. Black parents seem especially cautious. According to a survey from EducationNext, a journal, only 56% of African-American students who had access to in-person schooling in November took part, compared with 76% of their white peers. Attitudes are also split along party lines. Support for Donald Trump in 2016 was a strong predictor of districts’ decisions to reopen schools last autumn. Republicans are also less likely than Democrats to take precautions such as wearing a mask. If the schools that do open are also the ones least likely to follow the CDC’s guidance, the risk of cases spiking will increase.
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